CNN and others reported today that yet another bipartisan congressional delegation has found its way to Taiwan. Good.
Beijing has made the mistake of 1) crossing Pelosi and 2) giving politicians the opportunity to appear strong in an election year. We should be seizing on this momentum to cement good Taiwan policy across the board. Let Beijing see that not only did it screw up, let them see that the US is here to stay in the Pacific and on Taiwan. Force them to reconsider or at least delay their plans for an invasion of Taiwan. We have to convince them that we are not the sickly declining power they think we are. Pelosi showing up in Taipei was a good first step.
As important as decoupling with Beijing is, deepening our ties with Taipei is even more important. Building connections in DC and beyond with the Taiwanese people not only makes it harder for us to quit Taiwan if a war breaks out, it creates comradery and connection that can only make our two peoples stronger. Economic investment, cultural and education exchanges, and inclusion of Taiwan in Hollywood all serve the purpose of binding out countries together and making it harder for Beijing to drive a wedge between us. In this post, I’d like to share a few ideas for the executive and legislative branches on how to build our relationship with Taiwan in meaningful ways. With the exception of recommendations on advise and assist missions, the following ideas are not defense-specific. I’ll cover most of those in a separate post next week. Let’s get started.
Congress
Congress should provide additional funding for foreign exchange students to and from Taiwan at the 9th-12th grade level. I’ll have a separate post on an overhaul of the US education system in the future, but shifting focus towards Asia starts here.
Congress should make the diplomatic mission (the American Institute in Taiwan) official, and change the title of Director to Ambassador.
Congress should prioritize federal grants for Asian studies programs to Taiwan, and prioritize student visas for Taiwanese university students.
Congress should make delegations to Taiwan an official, monthly occurrence. Each delegation should have a particular theme (energy, defense, trade) and be led by the Chair or Ranking member of a particular committee/subcommittee.
Congress should grant trade promotion authority (TPA) for a bilateral trade deal with Taiwan. A TPA for a broader Pacific trade deal would be nice, but likely impossible in this political climate. A more narrow authority for negotiations with Taipei would be much more digestible for both parties.
Renewable energy lend-lease. Nearly 90% of Taiwan’s energy needs come from imported fossil fuels like coal and oil. During a blockade or war, these sources will dry up rapidly and make the humanitarian situation on the island exponentially worse. Since the DPP hates nuclear, the only options are wind, solar, and the like. I’ll cover defense lend-lease in another post, but for now Taiwan needs a rapid modernization of its power grid from carbon black to green if it hopes to remain independent.
The Executive Branch
Stop overriding Biden when he says he’ll defend Taiwan. Congress has already stated in the FY22 NDAA that it should be the policy of the US military to be able to stop a fait accompli against Taiwan by the PLA. Beijing already thinks we will defend Taiwan, so let’s make it official policy so that the bureaucracy understands its mission. Clarity matters if you want to get anything done. FFS they threatened to shoot down Pelosi’s plane but we’re still afraid to say we’d defend a democracy from the very same genocidal regime.
Seizing on potential Congressional approval of a TPA for Taiwan, USTR Ambassador Tai should make it her mission to coordinate negotiations before the end of the year. The hard parts here will be wrangling the other departments like Commerce to support such a deal that would likely come at the expense of US-China trade negotiations.
Biden doesn’t need to visit Taiwan, but he should host a summit with President Tsai somewhere on American soil. Hawaii is the best candidate, although I can’t help but think how much it would annoy Beijing to host it in Anchorage. The Alaskan city being the site of the first, notorious US-China meeting for the Biden admin in 2021.
Direct SECDEF to expand the advisor presence on Taiwan, and make it a permanent presence mission. 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade out of JBLM should maintain at least a battalion on the island, year-round. Additionally, Taiwanese ground forces should be invited to participate in training rotations at US training centers in the Pacific and CONUS.
Cut off trade negotiations with Beijing. The CCP has a notorious track record of not following through on its trade agreements with the US. We should be prioritizing trade and diplomacy with Taipei, not the genocidal regime across the Strait. Beijing will do everything it can in negotiations to exact impactful concessions from the US without changing its own behavior. If we try to make a deal with Taiwan, you can bet the termination of that deal will be the start of any negotiations with Beijing. We can’t keep sacrificing friends for empty promises from our enemies.
If we want to help Taiwan, we have to stop being shy. Strengthening our friendship means showing off our friendship. Showing up, committing, and real assistance can go a long way in helping Taiwan, help itself. The best thing we can do for Taiwan in peacetime is show the Taiwanese people that they are not alone. However, nothing stops an army like another, stronger army. So the above recommendations will only work if we pair them with a asymmetric defense and battle plan that can keep the PLA away. Next week, I’ll highlight what we can do to deter the PLA in the near-term.
In the mean time, if you would like to read more on what the consequences of losing a war for Taiwan might look like, you should check out my novel, EX SUPRA.