How to talk China in 2024
How to talk China in 2024
Setting a Smarter Baseline for China Discourse on the Campaign Trail
People change their minds in this town for three reasons: political winds and influence, overwhelming evidence, and brain worms. There’s a reason I get excited when I see someone change their mind on the CCP threat and dive into the problem set: it’s one of the few issue areas that isn’t rigidly frozen in partisan warfare. It’s a breath of fresh air. Presenting someone with overwhelming evidence of the threat still works in China policy (mostly). As I wrote late last year, the divide on China policy isn’t dictated by red vs blue. It is a bloody mess of corporate vs worker interests, human rights vs investment, neo-isolationism vs the liberal order, and so on. You’re not going to find an administration or party platform that is solely pro or anti-CCP, and to assume otherwise is to ignore the fine print of modern American politics at your own peril. As we close in on the last 90 days of the American presidential election, I’d like to outline what the China policy debate should really look like.
But first, a note on the Walz-China discourse.
There is simply too much we don’t know about his approach to the PRC for people, especially China policy folks, to be making sweeping judgments. We can base some of what a Harris-Walz ticket might think off of the Biden administration, but everyone has been in this admin for too long and mass turnover is likely coming soon (regardless of who is in the White House in 2025). And as Peter Mattis has said, Walz voted and ran policy based entirely upon where he sat. As a teacher in China and after, he cared for the Chinese people and (rightfully) separated them from the evils of the CCP. He married on June 4 to honor those who died at Tiananmen. As a congressman in the 2010s, he voted like the average Democrat on China where he cared about human rights violations but also believed engagement was necessary. As Governor, he prioritized AG sales and commerce with the PRC. I may disagree with that policy, but he wasn’t being dishonest with his constituency as a Midwestern governor. And as Vice-President, might the old artilleryman come out when he gets security briefings and become a hawk just as Pelosi has become? Who knows, you certainly don’t until we get the candidates briefed and talking on China policy. But frankly, what I’ve seen in commentary about the man is absurd. Some are too quick to assume he wouldn’t make tradeoffs between economics and human rights (as many red and blue have before and still do). However, it is also beneath the community to make Manchurian Candidate-esque allegations against a guy who did 20+ years in uniform and has been a vocal critic of CCP human rights abuses just because he is one of the few senior policy makers to have actually lived inside the Main Enemy. It’s all guesswork at best and Red Scare hysteria at worst.
So instead, let’s be smarter. Let’s set the baseline for China discourse and use our expertise to tell the country the right questions to ask of our future potential leaders. I have outlined below some of the questions that you should be asking of the candidates for leader of the free world. And quite frankly, policymakers throughout DC should be asking themselves…
People vs Party
-How do you view the people of China vs the Chinese Communist Party? Do you believe this is a real distinction? How would this inform your diplomacy and commerce initiatives?
-Is there a genocide in Xinjiang? How should we pressure the CCP? What sanctions would you employ?
-What is your assessment of Xi Jinping?
-What has been your interactions with the CCP? What should the American people know from your experiences?
TikTok, Tech, and Privacy
-Do you support the Biden administration’s policy on TikTok? Why does your campaign have a TikTok account? Would you challenge any lawsuit supporting TikTok after the ban goes through?
-What legislation and policy initiatives do we need to protect American platforms from PRC influence? How do you balance privacy and security with freedom of commerce and freedom of speech?
-How will you divest America of Chinese technology? Do you believe in near-shoring/friend-shoring or should we try to return all investment back to the United States?
-What are your priority emerging technologies, and how do you intend to invest in and develop them? How do you intend (if at all) to better leverage the visa process and immigration to incentivize intellectual transfer to the United States?
-Where (if at all) are our universities failing to train people in those emerging technologies that make us competitive with the PRC?
-How do you intend to maintain the US advantage in space and in launch technologies?
-How do you intend to protect American data and privacy from foreign government abuse, as well as abuse by American national security policy?
-How will you push back against Chinese influence campaigns? How will you balance civil rights concerns with the need to prevent Chinese disinformation from dominating discourse, particularly in the diaspora?
-Why should our allies and partners see you as a friend of the democratic world order? How will you build on the work the Biden administration has done to build stronger, more interoperable alliances in the Indo-Pacific?
-How will you balance our defense and economic relationship with India with human rights policy?
-What do you say to those nations sitting on the fence between the US and China? Why should they trust your version for America and the world?
-How do you intend to compete with PRC influence in the developing world?
Divestment vs Engagement
-What percentage of ownership do you believe is acceptable for a PRC-based investor to have in an American company? Is that different for national-security relevant and dual-use firms?
-How do you intend to handle climate and energy policy with regards to US-China relations?
-What sort of tariffs and trade incentives would you put in place to give America an economic advantage over the PRC?
-Would you commit to signing legislation that bans US pension investment in PRC firms? Would that only apply to PRC-owned firms, or private corporations as well?
PLA Killin’ Vibes
-Will you commit to not just supporting Taiwan with aid in peacetime, but actively committing US forces to defend Taiwan during wartime? If not, why not?
-If you do support defending Taiwan, how prepared are we for a near-term conflict? Where do we need to improve our budgeting and resourcing? Would you want to put troops on Taiwan in peacetime if it deterred an imminent conflict with the PRC?
-What are the best efforts Taiwan can make to help defend itself? How can we help them, help themselves?
-How do you see our allies playing a role in the defense of Taiwan and broader deterrence initiatives in the region?
-Do you see the Ukraine War, and broader Russia-China cooperation, as intertwined with Pacific security?
-If Russia is allowed to recover and rebuild, not to mention expand its influences and control over Ukraine, how will that impact security in the Pacific and will it embolden the CCP?
And the biggest question of all…
The competition between the US and the CCP is one of ideology as much as it is about firepower, economics, and influence. To ignore ideology is to ignore the very basis of our conflict. We cannot forget who we are.
How do you intend to ensure the US remains the champion and symbol of democracy, the shining light of freedom (even when we make mistakes) against the darkness of tyranny, that contrasts us with the evil we fought in the 20th Century and now face again from Beijing?
If you would like to read more about the future of US-China conflict, check out my novel, EX SUPRA, about the world after the fall of Taiwan, an isolationist and hyper partisan America, and World War III. It was nominated for a Prometheus Award for best science fiction novel and there’s a sequel in the works! If you have any suggestions for topics for future newsletters, please send them my way on Twitter @Iron_Man_Actual. And don’t forget to subscribe!