Maturity, Deployability, and Survivability

Buying Weapons Programs that Work

Our acquisitions system is broken. But that doesn’t mean you have to make it worse.

You. Yes you. The newly promoted hill staffer working HASC/SASC for the first time. The career line officer on a broadening assignment in the Pentagon. The fresh-out-of-college “policy wonk” who got the job over the next guy because you worked on the current admin’s campaign as a stamp licker. I’m here to tell you that you can, with some margin for error, actually buy the Right Stuff for our men and women out on the front line. Let me explain.

There are countless headlines about the countless boondoggles that the Pentagon purchases (with Congress’ money). And at least some of that comes from the absolute mess that is the acquisitions bureaucracy, corruption, and lack of oversight.

When the budget cycle starts, it starts with you. There is always someone that took a call from a lobbyist, industry rep, or frat buddy to hear their pitch for the first time. If you haven’t taken one, let me tell you what it’s like. The person will tell you how great their product is, that they’re really doing some cutting edge stuff with a bunch of buzzwords. You’ve heard of some; you haven’t heard of others, and you don’t want to sound dumb so you nod along and repeat the buzzwords. They might tell you they know the boss and have worked with them before (this may or may not be true.) You ask some questions, they give you some pre-rehearsed lines, maybe they offer you a demo, they tell you how much it costs (this is always wrong), and say it’s war ready, or that this system will mean the difference between life or death. You can’t let people die! You’ve never had this sort of responsibility before and it feels overwhelming. You don’t really understand what you’re looking at and that’s what they’re depending on. Whether it’s a good system or not, your ignorance or lack of experience is what gets these programs the boost they need to make it into a budget request.

So let me teach you my-tried and-true process for assessing military technology via three key factors: maturity, deployability, and survivability. If the assessed technology meets the requirements of these three categories, it is probably prime for purchase. Please note that these factors will be much different for basic RDT&E, so don’t confuse the two. This guide is meant to teach you how to assess a given technology or weapons system. Moreover, you still need to actually go out and *learn* the basics of operations and technologies. You should read up on the basics of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, missiles, cyber, synthetic biology, etc. You should talk to people in the field. You should remember that sometimes the absence of a system is better than the presence of a bad one. Knowing a little about a lot can go a long way. With that all being said, let’s get started.

Maturity

In the case of acquisitions, maturity refers to the mature development of a technology or weapons system. In simpler terms, can I put the designs to a production line tomorrow and deliver it to the force in a reasonable time without delay. The DoD has its own phases of technological development that are handy in a fix but we can do a little better. Here are some questions to ask: has this technology been used before? Is it available in the commercial market? What phase of RDT&E are you in? Are their elements of the system that have yet to be created or even designed? Is the lobbyist promising you a production timeline in years, months, or days? Does that feel proportional to the complexity and size of the system? Did they use the phrase “artificial intelligence” or “quantum something” or “boutique?” Does the production/supply chain already exist, and is it secure?"

The point is that if you’re buying a weapons system, you want to know that the guy or girl who comes after you won’t be having these exact same conversations as they curse your name for putting it in the budget. You want to know that by the time you leave the office, what you bought is rolling off the production lines and onto the front lines.

Deployability

In the case of deployability, I’m referring to the ability of a system to work and function under real-world conditions. Real world conditions are not a simulator, the AUSA floor, or Call of Duty. Real world conditions are dirty, they are hazardous, they are cramped, without 100MB bandwidth, and exist under extreme weather conditions. If the system uses a lithium-ion battery, under what temperatures can that battery operate without losing juice or exploding? How does that compare to the doctrinal use of said system? If the system requires a lot of bandwidth to transmit data for targeting or collection, how often is that bandwidth available in a contested environment, at what echelon, and will the lack thereof break the system? Does it possess enough fuel efficiency, processing power, and ammunition to survive on its own? Will it break if PFC Schmuckatelli shakes it real good? If you were a commander, would you regard such system as mission essential or as a nice-to-have if you have the space?

Sometimes deployability is an even simpler measure: Can I fit it in my ruck/humvee/shipping container? If I can, what do I have to give up? Would I rather have ammo or this cool gadget I might use? Can I bring it with me without fear of the slightest rain storm shattering any hopes of using it? Bottom line: Your tech has to be at least as tough as the soldier using it.

Survivability

Survivability is, in general, the hardest to measure without tests against enemy systems to which you likely won’t have access. Sure, you can Red Team a network or do shock tests against armor. You can find creative ways to test things, and industry can find creative ways to make tests *look* challenging. Pentagon Wars isn’t a work of fiction. So, how do you from your comfy or stuffy office in DC poke figure out if a technology is survivable? Well, you can start by asking about the first two categories I’ve talked about. If a technology is mature and deployable, it has a far better shot of being survivable. But not always. This is where we can into systems of systems.

A single technology by itself, like a tank or anti-ship missile, can be perfectly prime for purchase and production. Once you start integrating those with other technologies, that is often where their own survivability is challenged. The most prominent case study is that of JADC2, or the Joint All-Domain Command and Control network that was supposed to “connect all the sensors with all the shooters.” Even before the reports this summer of the program’s flailing, I and others knew it was bullshit. Why? Because I knew enough about the tech that I knew it wasn’t mature, it wasn’t deployable under contested conditions, and that made it completely unsurvivable. But it was sexy and too tempting for acquisitions leaders, the GOs, and ignorant collection of staffers to turn down. Relying on JADC2 at this stage or any time in the next decade in a battle plan can and will get people killed. So, don’t get people killed. Ask the right questions. Ask about maturity and deployability, and the following: if this system fails, will it cause a cascading effect and impair other systems? Does this system rely on, or cause, a single point of failure? If something fails in this system or weapon, does it have backups? Can it keep fighting/functioning without X/Y/Z? Can you carry spare parts easily and can they be installed by general personnel? The bottom line is this: are they selling you a heart or a finger? You can lose a few fingers, but you’ve only got one heart, and so does the soldier relying on that shiny object you put in the budget.

If you meet all of the above, your project is probably going to come in under or around the budget request, on time, and save lives instead of ending them. There’s still room for error, though. Companies go under, companies are fraudulent, budget cutbacks cause delays, the program or operational requirements change with new information or policies. Those, however, are out of your control. What is in your control, however, is how smart you are when the lobbyist steps into your office.

If you enjoyed this article and want to read more about what a future of acquisitions gone wrong and an over-consolidated defense industrial base looks like during a war with China, check out my novel, EX SUPRA. And if you have any suggestions for topics for future newsletters, please send them my way on Twitter @Iron_Man_Actual.